Historical scenario baseline: August 2026. Construction stages, delivery windows, ownership and the older comparison figures below are modeled or illustrative. Current observed permit data appears in Overview and Markets.
Supply pulse
Growing or dwindling
Spot is the build stock sitting in the ground. Future is what completes in 3–18 months. The scan is whether new authorizations and that stock are expanding or contracting.
Published
2026-08-22
Places
982/1150
Imputed
7.1%
Municipal state
FW quality hold
Metros
20
DFW latest
Jun 2026
Expanding
0
Permits and the build stock are both rising
Clearing
1
Permits still up, under-construction stock working down
Backlog
0
New permits slowing, still building from earlier authorizations
Contracting
19
Flow and the build stock are both shrinking
Market scan
Horizontal: authorized units YoY (flow). Vertical: under-construction YoY (the build). Lower-left is dwindling supply.
Pipeline flow
Sankey of the sample: authorization into idle / starts / the build / completions. Width is units, stock and flow mixed.
When units hit
Incremental completions, not cumulative. The near windows are spot becoming stock. The far window is still in the ground.
Spot vs 12-month future
Under construction now against units expected to complete in a year. Eight largest build stocks.
The shrinking build
National under-construction inventory across the sample. Authorized and starts overlaid so you can see flow drying up before the stock does.
Authorized YoY
Every metro, ranked. Left of zero is dwindling flow.
Pace vs last year
Trailing 12-month authorizations against the prior 12. Spark is the 24-month path. 3-month run-rate vs TTM is acceleration.
| Market | Path | TTM Δ | 3-mo pace | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | -31.0% | 15k-9% | Contracting | |
| Miami | -26.5% | 15k-6% | Contracting | |
| Denver | -28.8% | 9.6k-7% | Contracting | |
| Seattle | -25.8% | 8.7k-5% | Contracting | |
| Dallas–Fort Worth | -9.7% | 67k+7% | Contracting | |
| Atlanta | -17.6% | 35k-0% | Contracting | |
| Inland Empire | -19.5% | 11k-1% | Contracting | |
| Phoenix | -17.0% | 40k+0% | Contracting | |
| Orlando | -16.1% | 22k+1% | Contracting | |
| Sacramento | -16.4% | 8.5k+0% | Contracting | |
| Tampa | -14.1% | 25k+2% | Contracting | |
| Nashville | -13.1% | 13k+2% | Contracting | |
| Charlotte | -11.7% | 20k+3% | Contracting | |
| Houston | -10.8% | 51k+3% | Contracting | |
| San Antonio | -11.4% | 16k+3% | Contracting | |
| Raleigh–Durham | -10.6% | 14k+3% | Contracting | |
| Memphis | -11.2% | 6.4k+3% | Contracting | |
| Las Vegas | -10.2% | 16k+3% | Contracting | |
| Jacksonville | -8.2% | 17k+4% | Contracting | |
| Indianapolis | +0.3% | 11k+8% | Clearing |
19 of 20 metros are contracting. 1 still expanding or clearing. Dallas authorized TTM is Census BPS; other metros remain a modeled sample.